Posts tagged: Technology

Crisis, regulation, vigilance & cynicism

cynical take on Sen. Dodd’s financial regulatory reform bill by Matt Koppenheffer for Motley Fool:

We can probably point to plenty of regulatory failures in the lead-up to the financial crisis. But I hardly think that they’re regulatory failures stemming from lack of regulators. As Valukas noted in his report, regulators were swarming on Lehman well before its collapse…

It seems to me that the issue never was whether there were people trying to address the problem, but rather that they were trying to regulate on a fuzzy mandate of not letting something bad happen within the bounds of a very permissive system. For the same reason that we have speed limit signs posted in our residential neighborhoods, we need to give regulators a clearer, tougher set of standards that they can impose on financial companies.

First and foremost, those standards need to address the lunatic business model that Lehman Brothers — and, really, most of the big financial companies — was operating on at the time of its demise.

Specifically, Lehman was increasingly building up large, illiquid, proprietary investments while primarily financing itself through very short-term agreements. What it became was a massive, teetering Jenga game right smack in the middle of our financial system that could be toppled in the blink of an eye if it lost the confidence of major counterparties…

That last paragraph echoes a beautiful turn of phrase by Bill Bernstein in the most recent Financial Analysts Journal, in which he refers to ”leveraging so unstable that it could not survive the slightest of economic breezes, let alone a 100-year storm.”

Koppenheffer continues:

…the bill includes the Volcker Rule the way Cocoa Puffs include well-balanced nutrition. Little actually gets implemented in the text of the bill. Rather, specific regulations are supposed to come from a study on the rule’s potential impact. Not only is this likely to maximize the squishiness of the eventual rules, but it also gives lobbyists plenty of time to work their magic.

In the end, I don’t see the Fed folks as a bunch of incompetent bumblers. But when it comes to smothering the next Lehman, Fannie Mae…or AIG…I do think they’ll fail miserably because they’re being given a butter knife to regulate with when what they need is a buzzsaw.

A tangential riff: If we aren’t going to impose a hard, fast cap on leverage and other risky behaviors, then perhaps the power of network effects and private sector vigilance (vigilantism?) can help fill the gaps in our financial regulatory structure. For example, it seems reasonable to expect (OK, hope) that the next Harry Markopolos will be taken more seriously.

But when the issue is not fraud by a single market participant, but rather systemic levels of leverage and risk, then it seems unlikely that any kind of enforcement powers could be brought to bear if regulatory bodies haven’t purposefully enlisted private sector assistance beforehand. 

I suppose we’re a bit cynical too.  

URLs:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/03/24/why-the-fed-will-fail.aspx

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1553816

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_vigilantism

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos

More Important Than Facebook?!?

Hold your tongue, internet security expert!

A Georgia mother and her two daughters logged onto Facebook from mobile phones last weekend and wound up in a startling place: strangers’ accounts with full access to troves of private information.The glitch — the result of a routing problem at the family’s wireless carrier… — revealed a little known security flaw with far reaching implications for everyone on the Internet, not just Facebook users.

In each case, the Internet lost track of who was who, putting the women into the wrong accounts. It doesn’t appear the users could have done anything to stop it. The problem adds a dimension to researchers’ warnings that there are many ways online information — from mundane data to dark secrets — can go awry.

Several security experts said they had not heard of a case like this, in which the wrong person was shown a Web page whose user name and password had been entered by someone else. It’s not clear whether such episodes are rare or simply not reported. But experts said such flaws could occur on e-mail services, for instance, and that something similar could happen on a PC, not just a phone.

“The fact that it did happen is proof that it could potentially happen again and with something a lot more important than Facebook,” said Nathan Hamiel, founder of the Hexagon Security Group, a research organization.

URLs:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100115/ap_on_hi_te/us_tec_facebook_at_t_glitch

Our New Favorite Webpage

Attention behavioral economists — not all monopolists are rent seekers, and squatting is sometimes for sentimental reasons only:

From www.gail.com:

Hello and welcome to the gail.com FAQ.

Q1: Why isn’t there any content here?
A1: All web content is hidden to conserve network bandwidth.

Q2: Interested in selling gail.com?
A2: Sorry, no.

Q3: I think you’re infringing on my trademark…
A3: You can’t have an exclusive trademark on a common word or name. We’ve been down that road before. See WIPO Case D2006-0655 for more information.

Q4: How did you manage to get gail.com?
A4: My husband registered it as a birthday gift back in 1996.

Q5: Okay, seriously, how much do you want for gail.com?
A5: See Q2 above.

-Gail

If you’re wondering how I found it, I thought I had typed “gmail.com”.

Wall Street Stuff

Barron’s cover story this weekend urges Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to stop punishing savers and raise the Fed’s target overnight interest rate. To support their case, they use an array of market indicators, including the US Dollar index and the USD price of gold, arguing that “big investors have come to see the dollar, commodities and stocks as one-way bets.” A dramatically titled sidebar of charts (‘The Perils of Easy Money’) is provided, but beyond the rising price of gold, there’s nothing in them that offers primae facie evidence of either easy money or impending inflation.  Yes, the USD has declined almost 15% from its peak, but at current levels it is simply back to where it was at the end of 2007 and beginning of 2008. And while the S&P 500 has had a breath taking run off of its March 09 lows, it’s still roughly 20% below its peak.

What’s more, there’s little about the real U.S. economy that argues for higher nominal interest rates, and inflation (and deflation) can only arise from a misalignment of the financial system with the real economy. There’s still a considerable amount of private sector debt to be worked out in the coming years and decades; excessive household consumption has run its course; and U.S. demographics do not imply a high or rising ‘natural‘ rate of interest in the decade ahead. In fact, based on that latter point, we can sympathize (out of context) with Milton Friedman’s 1965 claim that “we are all Keynesians now”, as research into population demographics and their effects on economic output and asset pricing has produced some powerful (if tentative) insights. At the present time, the U.S. is simply not at a point where, demographically speaking or policy-wise, a low nominal rate of interest on overnight reserves is likely to produce rising asset prices or “excess demand” for goods and services in the same way that it did in the late 1970s. And for that reason, increasing investment in public goods, as many of today’s policymakers advocate, might be a good idea. It might even be inevitable, judging by the experience of Japan, a country ten years ahead of us on the demographic curve. At the very least, we can hope it will be done well (Art Laffer penned a supply side refutation back in May but did not address his underlying assumptions of perfect competition for — and full employment of — real resources).

The real problem with a low Fed Funds target, as we have pointed out previously, is that the USD is still the world’s primary reserve currency. Thus, while a low Funds rate might be appropriate for the U.S. economy, it can have inflationary consequences in parts of the world that have higher expected growth rates (the reverse can also happen, as it did in the 1990s – while a high funds rate and a strong dollar seemed appropriate for the U.S. economy, they wreaked deflationary havoc on much of the world). Rising prices for goods that are globally traded, and thus subject to the Law of One Price, will feed back into domestic U.S. price levels, providing a noticeable whiff of stagflation, much as gold, precious metals, and other commodities are doing now.  The global pressures caused by an easy Fed are also going to cause plenty of political consternation and some financial dislocation abroad, as recent salvos from global trading partners over the USD attest to. But we don’t expect broader inflationary pressures to unfold in the U.S. for quite some time, nor do we expect Congress to even entertain the possibility of revisiting Humphrey Hawkins; which means, in our view, that the Fed will remain easy for some time, probably well into 2010. In the meantime, should the USD continue its current trajectory, we might see some coordinated global interventions, as we did with the Plaza and Louvre Accords in the mid-1980s. But in those episodes, national treasury departments played the lead roles, not central banks.

There are also a couple of Investment News articles that illuminate some of the beefs we have with our industry. The first one is on a Morningstar study that found that over half of all mutual fund managers have no money in their own funds. There are some legitimate reasons why a percentage of mutual fund managers would not own shares of their own fund — but that percentage should be waaaaay below 51%. That’s bad enough, but what really stuck in our craw was the speculation that some fund managers might have their money in separately managed accounts that follow a similar strategy as their mutual fund, as they tend to offer lower expenses (they also offer greater transparency, potential tax advantages, and opportunities for customization). If we ran our Opportunistic Portfolio as a mutual fund, our firm’s principals and employees would own it as a mutual fund, period. As it is, we only offer it as a separately managed account, because that is a more advantageous approach for most investors, and because technology has made it possible for us to offer separate accounts to all of our clients (it’s also a heck of a lot cheaper than forming a mutual fund). I know this stuff goes right over most of our clients’ heads when we try to explain it. Suffice to say, we’re trying to do right by them, and by our industry, on each and every day, and we appreciate stories like this one as they lend support to a key piece of our competitive strategy.

The second article is somewhat innocuous, but offers a glimpse into the prevalence of momentum trading in our business, and the general fascination with market momentum. It quotes a large cap manager at ING as saying that ”There does seem to be something unorthodox about [current equity market behavior], but you ignore it at your own peril.” That’s not an objectionable statement, but the article’s headline was a bit stronger: “Market rebound may be illogical, but ‘ignore it at your own peril,’ manage of $1.7B warns”. Surely a similar thought occurred to each of the 20,000 bison shepherded off of Vore over the eons:

[The site hosting that image is pretty neat - you can read a history of bison and horses on the Great Plains while authentic cowboy/saloon music plays in the background.]

Our beef with momentum investing is that it rationalizes away everything but herd direction. If a manager buys momentum because the underlying investment thesis makes sense, there’s nothing wrong with that. But buying momentum for its own sake is the height of glamor boy laziness and stupidity. There’s too much of it in our business, and it contributes precious little to the economies and societies we operate in.

[The 'glamor boy' link will be nostalgic for anyone who was watching MTV in the late 1980s. While it's hard to take Corey Glover's claims of ferocity seriously while he's wearing a spandex suit and a marching band jacket, it's still a great song.]

URLs:

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125573856421291217.html?mod=rss_barrons_this_week_magazine

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/BA-EasyMoney091019.pdf

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2003/el2003-32.html

http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,842353,00.html

http://economics.uwo.ca/econref/WorkingPapers/researchreports/wp2009/wp2009_2.pdf

http://frank.mtsu.edu/~berc/tnbiz/stimulus/laffer.pdf

http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20091019/FREE/910199975/1094/INDaily01

http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20091019/FREE/910199982/1094/INDaily01

http://www.wyomingtalesandtrails.com/buffalojump.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XRpuhc9dgU

http://www.wyomingtalesandtrails.com/bison.html

Productivity and Prenatal Health

AP carried an interesting story on a study that compared children’s IQ levels at age five with their level of prenatal pollution exposure, and found that children with higher exposures scored an average of four to five points lower than others in the study. The public health and other researchers quoted in the article viewed the findings as ground breaking — “there may be more dangers from typical urban air pollution than previously thought,” one remarked — but perhaps they shouldn’t be (though the researchers did come up with an ingenious method — the pollution detection device worn as a backpack — to gather their data on prenatal pollution exposure). A few maverick researchers (as well as many cranks and quacks, of course) have been sounding these kinds of warnings for decades. This particular study is longitudinal, meaning that they’ll continue to follow and compare the children’s academic performance and other behavioral and developmental measures, which could get really interesting.

What strikes us about the study’s findings is that it confirms one of the basic tenets of economics, that there ain’t no free lunch. Hydrocarbon emitting technologies have done wonders for the productivity, health, and leisure of modern societies — which means they almost certainly come with a cost. While people have known about the environmental and political impacts of fossil fuel consumption for decades, the biological impacts on human bodies are just now becoming more apparent, it seems, and they could go well beyond a decline in IQ. We’re not Luddites, in fact we’re very pro-technology, but we readily admit that all societies face the challenge of how to optimally share the gains and losses of new (and existing) technologies, and how to appropriately manage the externalities and asymmetries they create.

URLs:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090720/ap_on_he_me/us_med_pollution_iq

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0879836385?ie=UTF8&tag=symmetrycapit-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=0879836385

http://www.quackwatch.org/

Should Health Care be a Right?

There’s a deep philosophical debate underlying Congressional attempts to craft a health care reform bill, centered around whether access to health care is (or should be) a basic human right. Up front, we see compelling arguments on both sides, and the “Yes” camp might even have the weightier material arguments on its side.  But the philosophical ones should not be brushed aside – especially given that the philosophical underpinnings of classical liberalism have served the U.S. and other western democracies pretty well (to critics, yes, realities have been far removed from ideals at times, but overall, these systems have proven remarkably stable and reasonably progressive).

The American Declaration of Independence asserted that three rights had been granted by God to each individual – life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness (or as Woody from Cheers memorably put it, “the purfuit of hapineff”). This was based on John Locke’s philosophical writings, and contextually, it was a declaration that no individual should be deprived of their life, property, or vocation involuntarily. In other words, the experience of human beings under governments should exclude unjustified limitations, expropriations, torture, and death. Thus the conservative nature of classical liberalism – there’s not a whole lot at work here, other than setting limits on what people can do to one another, including those in positions of political power. Within those boundaries, there’s a vast range of possibilities for human conduct.

In the modern secular world, rights are no longer granted to individuals by God, but are now social contracts – through democratic institutions, a society determines and declares what rights an individual is entitled to. For example, social welfare systems have evolved since the late 19th century as an embodiment of the idea that people should have a right (if they choose to exercise it) to a minimum standard of income (transfer payments), housing, and health care (e.g., Medicaid). Educational systems embody a similar principle. This modern version clearly has a more solid logical foundation, as deeming rights is clearly an endogenous human activity (presumably, if God cares and we get any of them wrong, he or she will let us know at some point). So that transition away from divinely granted rights seems OK to us. But like the opening of Pandora’s box, the transition carries risks — primarily that the list of rights grows substantially over time, with many unintended consequences.

[On a side note, this observation should illuminate the remarkable arc of governments since the time of Locke and later Jefferson. Back then, rights were necessary to protect individuals from the depradations of the powerful. Since then, governments have been increasingly designed to benefit the weak at the expense of the powerful (or perhaps more accurately, the poor at the expense of the wealthy). Of course, they don't always work that way. But clearly, the idea of 'tyranny from below' is more feasible in modern social democracies.]

So today, instead of determining that individuals have rights that limit a government’s power over them, we articulate rights to things which, in many cases, governments must provide or at least enforce the provision of. That’s the critical distinction between rights today and rights in earlier centuries. Those earlier rights were intended to level the playing field between, e.g., landed aristocracy and free individuals, by transferring a certain amount of political and social power from the former group to the latter. Today they are more often intended to extract resources from the haves for the benefit of the have nots – however defined for that particular right.* To the extent that that the public reallocation of private resources provides a greater level of security and productivity overall, it may be a desirable activity. But that doesn’t address whether those reallocations need to be, or should be, enshrined as ‘rights’.

This is tangential to the choice between a political system guided by principles versus one guided by mandates. A principles-driven system has a core of ideals that can be applied flexibly to a wide range of real world situations. It allows for the rational acceptance of human imperfections, and the development of institutions for dealing with them as they occur. A system based on mandates is inevitably more complex, with rigid and sometimes contradictory rules and regulations that often become more complicated over time, and utopian standards of outcomes and conduct that, carried to an extreme,  almost require that we legislate risk, bad outcomes, and human nature itself out of existence. An expanding list of human rights is almost certain to lead to the latter type of system. As just one example, consider ‘The Human Right to Health‘ declaration from The People’s Movement for Human Rights Education. It captures well the idea that we’ve gone beyond the right to not have government interfere with the voluntary conduct of individuals, to the right to have government provide (or ensure provision of) certain things for all individuals. These two kinds of ‘rights’ are conceptually so different that they probably ought to have different names.

If we’re going to take a rational approach to the question of whether access to health care is a right, we should look for a suitable existing analogue. To us, it looks like access is the key word, and that access to legal systems and political processes are close analogues. As law and political systems evolved, people have demanded (and received) greater access to them. More recently, as medical standards, technologies, and delivery have advanced, the demand for universal access to them has increased, and that’s not unreasonable. But whereas in Locke’s time, declarations of rights sought to reallocate power from ‘enemies’ of liberty who possessed too much of it (and too often wielded it unjustly), a declaration of a human right to health care requires a significant reallocation of resources from some of us to others of us. In other words, there is no ‘enemy’ in the situation at hand unless, to borrow from Pogo, one believes that enemy is us — that some have been depriving others of access to health care. And that presents a thorny set of issues for society to debate. Unfortunately, they’re not getting much attention.

As we noted at the outset, this is a deep philosophical question, and so this missive, like any colloquium in philosophy worthy of the name, utterly lacks a satisfying resolution. We would just ask people to be aware of the following: the distinct historical conceptions of rights; the unintended consequences that are bound to follow the adoption of any expanding compendium of human rights; and most importantly, in our view, the fact that past attempts at ensuring individuals’ access to health care have contributed directly to the large numbers of uninsured individuals and families and to the precipitous rise in medical expenditures. And we would point out that the current legislation only piles on to those previous errors.

* There are current debates that relate primarily to founding principles and rights. For example, same sex marriage clearly relates to liberty and (according to 20th century SCOTUS interpretations) the pursuit of happiness, and on its surface it would not appear to involve the reallocation of private resources. But ironically, it’s due to the existence of laws governing the allocation of resources, such as probate and spousal benefits, that same sex marriage becomes a thornier political issue than it might otherwise be.

URLs:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090715/ap_on_go_co/us_health_care_overhaul

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/11/25/arts/25carr2190.jpg

http://www.igopogo.com/we_have_met.htm

http://www.pdhre.org/rights/health.html

President Obama to the Motherland

President Obama made a powerful speech on governance in Ghana that he directed at all or most of Africa. While we would quibble with the idea that Africa and its people can be meaningfully addressed as a single pseudo nation-state, some of the observations he offered are applicable to all human societies. According to the Associated Press:

Speaking to the Ghanaian Parliament, he called upon African societies to seize opportunities for peace, democracy and prosperity.

“…Development depends upon good governance. That is the ingredient which has been missing in far too many places, for far too long.”

The son of a white woman from Kansas and a black goat herder-turned-academic from Kenya, Obama delivered an unsentimental account of squandered opportunities in postcolonial Africa…

In his speech to Parliament, America’s first black president spoke with a bluntness that perhaps could only come from a member of Africa’s extended family.

“No country is going to create wealth if its leaders exploit the economy to enrich themselves, or if police can be bought off by drug traffickers,” he said.

“No business wants to invest in a place where the government skims 20 percent off the top, or the head of the Port Authority is corrupt. No person wants to live in a society where the rule of law gives way to the rule of brutality and bribery.

“That is not democracy, that is tyranny, even if occasionally you sprinkle an election in there,” he said, “and now is the time for that style of governance to end.”

He added: “Africa doesn’t need strongmen, it needs strong institutions.”

Some reflections…

First, the President’s remarks are things that need to be said, and discussed more openly and frequently. Too often we subsume ethics and good governance to economic calculations, convenience, or fear. But the real costs of poor governance are staggering when you start trying to add them up.

Second, what a great moment for the people of Africa (our quibble above duly noted) to host (briefly) the most powerful leader in the world, who happens to be the son of an African man, and whose identity was forged in part by time spent as a young man in Kenya. The AP reporter is almost certainly right in saying that only a member of “Africa’s extended family” could speak so openly about Africa’s historic travails and paths forward. That he didn’t focus his implications on northern hemisphere powers for their historic contributions to poor governance in parts of the continent will surely disappoint some – but perhaps his relative silence on that aspect is intended to point out that, for the first time in centuries, the way forward may have more to do with African countries’ internal resources and governance than with external powers. Still, we suspect that Yao Opare-Asamoa, the skeptical Ghanaian editorialist whom we cite below, will not be alone in taking a more cynical view of the President’s visit and speech.

Third, we’d point out to the President that, although probably far less damaging, tyranny is still quite possible even under the strongest of political institutions. And though not as bad as some right wing pundits are likely to declare in the coming days, there are shades of irony in his comments, given his incredibly ambitious agenda and the costs that it will (or would) eventually force onto some within the American electorate. While the President decries tyranny of the individual and their clan – the rule of strongmen – he leaves out the concept of tyranny of the majority, a problem and concern that has been around as long as democracies themselves. We don’t disagree that there are some pressing issues that the Obama agenda is designed to address (or that ‘tyranny of the majority’ is sometimes invoked as convenient cover for private sector tyrants). But strongman rule is also designed to address pressing issues – most often experiences and/or expectations of a fixed or falling level of resources relative to population – and so its practitioners probably believe that they too are fighting the good fight, however it might look to those on the outside. But if any leader, whether strongman or duly elected, goes too far in exploiting a country’s resources in order to enact an agenda – be it clan centered or focused far more broadly on social well-being – then those resources are likely to come up short in the long run. In the case of the U.S., if the party now in power goes too far in exacting tribute from the financially successful – and/or the broad economy – then the level of success, and the number of successful people, are likely to decline, leaving society worse off overall. It’s never clear exactly where that line lies, and surely the President understands that it exists – but some in his party demonstrate a clear willingness to trample it, either blissfully unaware of the unintended consequences, or willing to accept them as trade offs against other consequences that are presumed to be more dire (e.g., climate change). Thus, while we no longer face endemic “wars over land” in the U.S., we can’t deny that our political system has been girding for a “[war] over resources” for some time. However, that observation does support the thrust of President Obama’s speech – that with well developed political institutions, those inevitable “wars” inflict far less damage on people than they otherwise would.

Fourth, the myth of ‘one Africa’ really is a curious one. While it can be a balm or a rallying cry when thinking about the damaging legacies of slavery and other forms of exploitation, it’s not very practical for addressing the diverse realities on the ground that are faced by people living there. And it seems to betray a simpler level of understanding of Africa in the northern and western hemispheres than of, say, Asia, where few would ever consider addressing, for example, China, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam as a single entity (though if there’s a parallel in that list to Africa, it might be our tendency to look at China as a homogenous population and country). For those who are interested in learning more about the diversity, nuances, traditions, and futures of Africa and its people, the internet is a great place to begin. For starters, we happened across this wide ranging essay from Koranteng Ofosu-Amaah, whose diverse cultural and business experience – and apparently deep intellectual curiosity – allow him to spin some fascinating anthropology-in-reverse riffs, and develop a ‘Low End Theory of Technology’ that, while aimed at technology investments in poorer countries, seems to have broader applications to investment and development. Businesses that want to invest wisely in frontier markets should probably pay close attention to voices like his.

Fifth, governance and prosperity are very much a chicken and egg riddle. It’s not entirely clear whether one precedes the other (and which one, if so) or if they progress haltingly, roughly in tandem, or whether other key ingredients are necessary, be they aspects of political economy or happenstance factors and endowments. For example, one skeptical editorialist in Ghana offered an anecdote about a lost foreign direct investment (FDI) opportunity that revealed the critical role of business education and practices, infrastructure, and security:

Now that everybody is singing our praises, let’s take advantage of the situation and push for Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs). Let’s seek technical assistance to build up our Polytechnics and other vocational institutions. It is often said that ‘investments’ desire peace and stability; we do have a case good to present on this front. This is where we come in. We need to adequately prepare and provide the atmosphere for the FDIs. A few years ago, it was reported that Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital lost a big opportunity for major technical and financial assistance because the management was just not ready and couldn’t draw up a simple proposal to show how the Hospital would utilize the funds. The government should have a clear-cut vision of what it wants to do. It should have plans and proposals at the ready. We should be able to guarantee year-round uninterrupted power and water supply. Safety and security of peoples and goods should be ensured. Only after these and more should we present our case and pursue it with all the ‘clout’ that we seem to have gained.

So I would join my brothers and sisters to wish President Obama and his family well. I pray that his would be ‘change we can believe in’ even in Ghana and the rest of Africa.

The writer’s emphasis on FDI also exposes (implicitly) the need for continued development of a financial system capable of matching domestic income and savings – rather than just export dollars and repatriated earnings from abroad – with increasingly diverse domestic investment opportunities (the Ghanaian economy is still heavily dependent upon agriculture and mineral extraction). I’ve had the pleasure of meeting financial professionals from Ghana, and have little doubt that the country will continue to make progress on those counts. But it has some catching up to do in those areas with, for example, Botswana, which has a per capita GDP ten times higher, pristine public finances, and a relatively well developed commercial finance sector. On the other hand, Ghana compares favorably on things like recent domestic investment as a % of GDP and income distribution. And both countries, like much of the developing world, have relatively young populations compared to industrialized countries – while HIV/AIDS might be a contributing factor, this is still a promising endowment for future progress – as long as institutional settings permit the productive use of their time, energy, and talents, as the President pointed out.

Sixth, the Obamas also visited the powerfully symbolic Cape Coast Castle off the coast of Senegal, which was a major jumping off point for the transAtlantic slave trade. Known for its ‘Door of No Return’, an inscription there reads:

IN EVERLASTING MEMORY

OF THE ANGUISH OF OUR ANCESTORS.

MAY THOSE WHO DIED REST IN PEACE.

MAY THOSE WHO RETURN FIND THEIR ROOTS.

MAY HUMANITY NEVER AGAIN PERPETRATE

SUCH INJUSTICE AGAINST HUMANITY

WE, THE LIVING, VOW TO UPHOLD THIS.

Though he follows two immediate predecessors there, Obama’s presidential visit is made all the more poignant by the fact that First Lady Michelle had ancestors who travelled through similar ‘points of no return’, if not the Castle itself. Symbolic acts matter, and presidential visits to sites memorializing the transAtlantic slave trade and other human holocausts seem like a good idea to us.

Finally, we have to ask, does this guy – our President – plug himself into a wall outlet at night?! Travel, diplomacy, political strategy, executive leadership, negotiation, etc, are all demanding on one’s energy and resources. And a marathon presidential campaign has to be one of the most exhausting experiences there is. But Obama is like the Energizer Bunny…he keeps working…and working…and working…however, studies of health, stress, even anthropology teach us that bodies are not immune to the laws of biology (the analogue in economics is that there’s no free lunch), and even small but chronic deficits will take a toll, much as small but chronic caloric surpluses will allow us to pack on many pounds in adulthood. The U.S. Presidency seems to impose more than a small deficit on its successors, and Obama continues to go after the job with gusto. Apparently his accelerated physical aging was noted as early as last summer and again this spring (with a tip of the hat for that last link to the Village Voice, which apparently — and perhaps justifiably — feels there are better topics for seasoned reporters to cover). Still, he continues to burn brightly, and we sincerely hope there’s enough fuel there to feed the flames, as a presidential burn out wouldn’t be much fun for anybody. If nothing else, it’s a good reminder that, despite what most of us like to think and say, public service does, at least in some important ways (and for some people, some of the time…qualifications galore…) entail sacrifice. Of course one juicy book advance or a few hitches on the lecture circuit can produce an extremely positive ROI on said sacrifice – but there’s some sacrifice involved nonetheless.

DISCLOSURES: The foregoing is for informational purposes and/or entertainment only. It is not an offer to buy or a recommendation to sell any security, or to engage in any investment strategy. Please note that Symmetry Capital Management, LLC earns a revenue sharing fee of 4% from Amazon.com for any ‘click-through’ transactions. The firm, its principals, and its clients do not own shares in Amazon.com.

URLs:

http://www.ghana.gov.gh/

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090711/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyranny_of_the_majority

http://symmetrycapital.net/index.php/blog/2009/07/tr2-why-well-leave/

http://koranteng.blogspot.com/2007/05/on-ibm-and-africa.html

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/GH.html

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/BC.html

http://www.modernghana.com/news/226743/1/obama-and-ghana-vis-vis-us-foreign-policy.html

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/11520.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/05/us/politics/05gray.html?_r=2&hp

http://blogs.villagevoice.com/runninscared/archives/2009/03/breaking_obama.php