WSJ: Growing Pessimism among Economists

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that economists in its latest forecasting survey have grown more pessimistic about 2009 economic performance:

Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey, while still mostly projecting growth in the U.S. gross domestic product by the third quarter, largely agree that a "second-half recovery"—a scenario that has been a common feature of most 2009 outlooks—is looking much less likely now than it did a few months ago. Recent data showing just how sharply growth in the U.S. and abroad has declined in the final months of 2008 have cast a deepening shadow over 2009.

We’re not happy about this – recessions, especially severe ones, stink**. But we note that the forecasting profession is moving closer to our fairly dim outlook, articulated most recently in our 2009 Outlook.

** On the other hand, recessions aren’t all pain and woe. Time is an extremely valuable commodity in a highly productive economy like ours. Time with family and friends, time for introspection, time out of the rat race, time spent reflecting on the past, and thinking about the future – these are all real benefits for people who’ve been negatively affected by an economic downturn (we’d note that their value is also enhanced by social safety nets like unemployment benefits). Today, we’re emerging from a period of surplus incomes, credit, and acquisitiveness, and entering a period of surplus time, savings, and reflection. We’ll adapt and even thrive. In short, we’ll be OK – wherever this cycle takes us.

URLs:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123445757254678091.html?mod=djemalertNEWS 

http://www.symmetrycapital.net/idlespeculation/20090209.pdf