Election a Factor in 2008?

The IMF released an interesting study comparing the quality of political institutions in emerging markets with the countries’ relative cost of capital (emphasis added):

We find that financial markets value institutions over and above the economic and fiscal outcomes these institutions shape. Democracy and accountability generally lower sovereign spreads, political risk tends to increase them, and financial markets tend to view election years negatively.

It is interesting that financial markets seem to care more about institutional quality than actual economic outcomes when it comes to assessing risk, but it was the ‘markets hate elections’ inference that really caught our eye, given the debacle of 2008. It would seem to lend support to the ‘postmortem’ analysis we offered in our 2009 Outlook and arguments in earlier issues of The Idle Speculator, that anticipated shifts to the left in important policy areas had a negative impact on most financial assets.

URLs: 

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=22654.0 

http://www.symmetrycapital.net/idlespeculation/20090209.pdf 

http://www.symmetrycapital.net/idlespeculation/20080925_policy_mix.pdf 

Political Winds: Stimulus, Pelosi, Jindal

The stimulus bill has apparently been agreed to by both chambers of Congress and should be passed this week for President Obama’s signature. The program isn’t perfect (they never are), but for its size, it was developed expeditiously. The new Administration can view that as a victory, and it will stand to benefit from perceptions of its effectiveness – which of course requires that it has some positive impact. On that point, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the plan will add 1.2 to 3.6 million jobs, and increase GDP by 1.1-3.3%. Not bad, but keep in mind that GDP is now expected to contract by over 4% in the first quarter of 2009, and much of the stimulus in this bill won’t kick in right away. It’s still going to be a long, tough haul, and in our view, without fundamental tax reform and long term USD stability, the happy days, when they return, will be a tad more doleful, and a bit less gleeful.

The stimulus bill can also be seen as a victory for the Senate. It’s reported (by CNN and NY Times, via US News and World Report’s Political Bulletin) that House Leader Pelosi was ticked off by an allegedly premature announcement of an agreement on the bill by Sen Reid. We pointed out that President Obama could have his hands full with House Dems – it remains to be seen whether he’s brought them to heel, or whether they’ll demand their pounds of flesh in the sessions ahead.

Finally, AP (also via US News and World Report Political Bulletin) reported that Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal will deliver the GOP’s counter point to President Obama’s first speech to Congress on 2/24. Cynics might argue that Jindal’s selection, along with the election of Michael Steele to head the GOP, is evidence of a strategy to present candidates who are more richly tinted than, say, Dick Cheney. But Jindal is a very competent and popular governor, as well as a charismatic speakerĀ  – for a Republican, anyways. If nominated for the presidency in 2012, would he be a strong enough match for Obama? We think that would only happen if the new President’s political capital has suffered significantly via economic malaise (which could well happen, as it did with President Carter) and/or some other significant and unexpected development(s). Otherwise, Obama will be a tough match for the GOP in 2012.

Our “Wha’ppened?!?” for 2/10/09

We’ve posted an analysis of yesterday’s steep market sell off at http://www.symmetrycapital.net/idlespeculation/20090211.pdf. All of our Idle Speculator pieces are available online at http://symmetrycapital.net/index.php/idle-speculator/.

SCM’s 2009 Outlook Now Available

Our 2009 Outlook (and 2008 Postmortem) are now available online at http://symmetrycapital.net/idlespeculation/20090209.pdf. All of our Idle Speculator pieces are available at http://symmetrycapital.net/index.php/idle-speculator.

GaveKal: Where Growth Will Come From

Interesting outlook from GaveKal Research by way of John Mauldin at Investor Insight. While our intermediate outlook for many asset prices is pretty dour, they offer a constructive longer term view, especially of what they call "platform companies", knowledge intensive firms that follow business strategies that are well suited to the realities of the modern world (primarily information technology and globalization):

The platform model came to the fore a little over a decade ago as: 1) information and communications prices plummeted, 2) global trade soared and 3) global capital flows surged. This convergence of factors enabled emerging economies to specialize, accumulate capital, and establish new comparative advantages, leading to a dramatic increase in the efficiency of global production. This process also triggered an accelerating pace of creative destruction among the world’s developed countries, raising the stakes on the achievement of multi-factor productivity.

The current financial crisis is the first real test of the twin Ricardian and Schumpeterian growth dynamics that gave rise to the platform business model and the growth trends that we have witnessed in recent years. And today, most of our clients seem to believe that the crisis actually marks the death-knell of the model; the coming years are bound to be marked by growing protectionism, collapsing productivity and consequent economic misery.

We disagree and instead believe that recent evidence suggests that, far from being the beginning of the end for the platform-company model, we are simply going through the end of the beginning. With every day that goes by bringing another spate of earnings disappointments, bankruptcies, and examples of mismanagement, it would seem intuitive to expect corporate behavior to reflect these grim times, with companies retreating, retrenching, and regressing. But, in recent weeks, we have started to pick up on examples of the exact opposite, as the well-capitalized platform companies have used this period of turbulence to position themselves for the next phase of growth.

Our bet is thus that the platform model itself will emerge stronger from the current crisis, and play a larger role in future global economic development than most investors currently believe. Globalization is far from dead and the companies that are positioning themselves today to reap its rewards will be the winners of tomorrow.

Also of note is their brief observation on how the U.S. corporate tax code encourages cash hoarding [and capital investment] abroad:

Platform-companies have piled up huge cash hoards as they optimize supply chains and monetize productivity. Due to the backward tax laws, US multinationals have hundreds of billions of dollars stored up in overseas bank accounts. It is estimated that the nine largest US pharmaceutical companies alone have $113 billion stashed abroad. US companies have so much money squirreled away that Allen Sinai of Decision Economics concluded that, if the US lowered tax rates temporarily on repatriated earnings, companies would repatriate US$545 billion. There is a precedent for this: we saw US companies bring home $360 billion in 2004 as a result of the temporary 5% tax rate contained in the American Jobs Creation Act.

This observation, though always relevant, is especially timely, as during his press conference yesterday, President Obama observed that our federal tax code induces companies to locate overseas, thereby giving "tax breaks" to firms that hire outside the U.S. In response, he wants to give "tax breaks" to companies that locate and employ people in the U.S. All fine and good, except that the implication is that businesses currently receiving the alleged "tax breaks" are likely to get some kind of "tax shaft". Given the substance of the current stimulus bill, we wouldn’t be surprised if the President gave his blessing to the House pursuing its desire to punish business activities that occur outside the U.S. A far more sensible course would be to allow the benefits of foreign activities to flow back into this country more easily – but it’s been awhile since the U.S. Congress demonstrated good sense on any economic issue.

URLs:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2009/02/09/where-will-the-growth-come-from.aspx 

‘Frightening’ Trend in Gold

In another echo of the 1970s, Bloomberg reported that the chairman of Barrick Gold Corp sees a "frightening" trend toward higher gold prices. 

Barrick Gold Corp. Chairman Peter Munk said an “unpleasant and frightening” trend of investors buying gold as protection against uncertainty in world markets may help push the metal over $1,000 an ounce.

Munk, founder of Toronto-based Barrick, the world’s largest gold producer, said he has received an increasing number of calls from wealthy investors looking for ways to buy bullion. While that is positive for the metal market, it is a “sad part of a civilized society,” Munk said.

“That’s not where you want to be, it’s alarming,” he said today in an interview from Davos, Switzerland, where he is attending the World Economic Forum. “Do I personally believe gold will break through $1,000? It’s not a question of if, it’s a question of how soon.”

As the article points out, this may be good news for holders of gold and claims on gold production, but it is decidedly troublesome for the global economy. This is primarily because it implies rising inflation and falling financial asset values in the years ahead. We made this point to clients in our 2009 Outlook, which will be posted on our public website shortly (2/9/09 – now available at http://www.symmetrycapital.net/idlespeculation/20090209.pdf). If there is any benefit to rising inflation, it’s that debtors will see their debt service burden fall in real terms. Unfortunately, this is only true for those who are able to stay afloat as inflation takes hold, and it means a corresponding loss for creditors, who will demand greater compensation for risk taking in the future, all else equal.

By our reckoning, gold north of $1,000 would imply an annual inflation rate of 4 to 6% in the next one to two years, as things now stand. Added to a 7 to 8% unemployment rate, you get a Misery Index (unemployment rate plus inflation rate) of 11 to 14%. However, if gold repeats its bubble performance of the 1970s, the Misery Index could go much higher. Back then, when all was said and done, gold settled at a level ten times higher than it had been in the early 1960s. Conservatively, that would put gold at $2,500 to $3,500 per ounce today, which would almost certainly signal double digit inflation in the years to come. And based on our prediction that unemployment could peak at 11-12%, the Misery Index could exceed 20%, perhaps even surpassing its June 1980 high of 22%.

Some analysts and economists argue that inflation is ‘good’ for stocks, at least over the longer term. However, under our regression-derived models, a gold price of $2500/oz would imply 400-500 on the S&P 500, a decline of 40-50% from current levels, while $3500/oz would call for a value of 200-300 on the S&P 500, a decline of 65 to 75% from current levels. A gold price of $1500/oz would imply an S&P 500 value of 600-650. Let’s hope that Chairman Munk’s forecast for gold is overly bullish. If not, we’d expect the Misery Index to rise and stock market indices to fall.

URLs:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aXiv1sHNjvsk&refer=canada# 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misery_index_(economics) 

http://www.miseryindex.us/ 

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/15/business/mcolumn16.php 

 

TR2: Taking off the Gloves

Yet another Obama cabinet appointee has had some tax skeletons unearthed – this time it’s Labor Secretary nominee Hilda Solis, whose husband hurriedly settled some 16 year old business tax liens this week:

Labor Secretary nominee Hilda Solis became the latest Cabinet nominee to face questions about unpaid taxes Thursday as a Senate panel abruptly postponed a scheduled vote on her confirmation. The postponement came after revelations that Solis’ husband settled tax liens on his California auto repair business this week that had been outstanding for as long as 16 years.

The discovery posed another political headache for a White House already chafing after tax problems and other controversies derailed some administration appointments, including former Sen. Tom Daschle’s nomination as health secretary. President Barack Obama pledged in TV interviews this week that he would "make sure that we’re not screwing up again" in the vetting process.

Coming in the wake of tax revelations for three other cabinet appointees – Daschle, Killefer, and Geithner – it’s certainly going to dent the new President’s political capital. It’s also likely to push our  ‘Tax Revolt II’ thesis along. Consider the serious questions these mini scandals raise in voters’ minds – the party that (let’s be honest) favors higher taxes in the aggregate has some luminaries who don’t care much for paying their own share. That’s not just irritating, it’s maddening. It’s also ethically untenable and utterly indefensible, as it means that they want to force others to surrender a significant portion of their wealth to them, to use as they see fit, all while making minimal sacrifices of their own. When you’re in the private sector, that’s called cheating or theft. When you’re in the public sector, it’s the raw material of tyranny. Although some might bother, we’re not wasting any time wondering if these recent tax settlements arose from sudden crises of conscience and improvements of character among the nominees, or from their willingness to pay up for the privilege and power of holding an important public office. We’ve just gone ahead and assumed the latter, and if it makes an ass of us ("me"), so be it – the "u" has already been taken care of.

Meanwhile, the President spouted some dangerous nonsense on taxes in an address yesterday. We certainly understand his impatience to pass a stimulus bill, given his conviction that the end of the modern world lies just around the corner. And we have no problem with resonable arguments for public investments in health care, education, and energy. But his claim that in the "last ten years, maybe longer", tax cuts have been tested and found wanting, is nonsense. It might appear that way if you only look at the U.S. But if you look globally, or compare states and regions of the U.S. on the basis of taxes and other barriers to productive investment, it becomes fairly apparent that taxes can have a profound impact on economic development (his own CEA, Christina Romer, has demonstrated this idea academically). We’ll admit that the first part of his argument was nuanced (see first paragraph below), implying that perhaps government activism and tax cuts might not be exclusive. But the second part of his remarks has an unmistakably bearish tenor, and let’s not forget that President Obama has campaigned on the idea that tax credits and transfer payments somehow constitute "tax cuts". As quoted in and interpreted by the LA Times:

And [Obama] singled out for criticism the repeated calls from Republicans for more tax cuts.

In the last few days, we’ve seen proposals arise from some in Congress that you may not have read but you’d be very familiar with because you’ve been hearing them for the last 10 years, maybe longer. They’re rooted in the idea that tax cuts alone can solve all our problems; that government doesn’t have a role to play; that half-measures and tinkering are somehow enough; that we can afford to ignore our most fundamental economic challenges — the crushing cost of healthcare, the inadequate state of so many of our schools, our dangerous dependence on foreign oil.

So let me be clear. Those ideas have been tested, and they have failed. They’ve taken us from surpluses to an annual deficit of over a trillion dollars, and they’ve brought our economy to a halt.  And that’s precisely what the election we just had was all about.  The American people have rendered their judgment.  And now is the time to move forward, not back. Now is the time for action.

It’s disconcerting that President Obama is interpreting his mandate so broadly. While a voting decision is usually a binary outcome – one either votes for or against a candidate or a proposal  – electoral calculations are far more complex. Only sycophants and cheerleaders, who tend to be a very small proportion of the electorate,  vote for every single plank of a candidate’s platform. Responsible voters decide which policies are important to them, then weigh the pros and cons of each candidate’s planks, and decide accordingly. Assuming a broad, sweeping mandate is a recipe for two things – bad policy decisions, and being turned out by the electorate. Just ask the members of Congress who had to brush up their resumes in the wake of 2006 and 1994.

The President went on to say that in this historic challenge lies opportunity. The important question to ask is, opportunities for whom, where, to do what, and with whose money? He claimed that the majority of the activity induced by the stimulus bill would occur in the private sector. But that’s really not the point – the right question is how much control the government should have over the allocation of resources in the economy. If government becomes dictator of the activities of the private sector, that is no longer free market capitalism, but rather part and parcel of fascism. And it’s not clear yet whether President Obama is well acquainted with the concept of opportunity costs. What investments will be crowded out by government dictates? What future possibilities will be squelched by decisions made in the Beltway today? There’s no way to know, but the reality of those kinds of consequences can’t be denied.

We’ve argued for some time that the U.S. will soon be due for a repeat of the 1970s Tax Revolt, calling it Tax Revolt II, and now "TR2" for short. We’ve seen some nascent signs and blogged about them in the past year, and we’re seeing more of them in the wake of the Obama Cabinet’s tax scandals.

We still have a Mulderish desire to see the Obama administration succeed wildly, so we don’t relish taking the gloves off – in fact, we intend to put them back on for now. We’ll just close with some important and very timely ideas from a 2001 profile and interview of economist Reuven Brenner:

Prosperity, [Brenner] writes, is a consequence of "matching talent with capital, and holding both sides accountable." Open, democratized financial markets and access to capital promise the most benefits to the most people. Private, as opposed to public, institutions have the most incentive to distribute capital wisely and prudently. Government, he writes, "can make many more and greater mistakes, and they can also fail to correct them."

Why? Because they have a monopoly on the power to tax. Given that, they are unlikely to face bankruptcy and, hence, the urgency to change. An exception would be the case of the Soviet Union, which survived on repression and monopoly control of the economy until the state was finally bled beyond financial recovery.

"The best system is one of stable institutions that move as fast as possible to correct mistakes,&
quot; he explains. And private institutions have incentive to act quickly; neglecting to do so means financial ruin. Governments, on the other hand, merely compound their mistakes and then raise taxes to cover them.

This discretion to raise funds takes away the incentive to change. "Only when they go bankrupt or are leapfrogged by other states will governments be forced into action. Until then they can simply carry on."

He continues, "We are living with years’ worth of mistaken regulations that impact today. It is difficult to erase old regulations, so instead we pile new ones upon them. This is what creates the habit in people of going to government for solutions instead of responding with private initiatives," he says.

URLs: 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090205/ap_on_go_pr_wh/labor_solis 

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/02/barack-obama-1.html 

http://www.mcgill.ca/reporter/33/16/brenner/ 

It’s Tax Simplification, Stupids!

Good grief. President Obama’s ‘Chief Performance Officer’ has withdrawn her nomination over – you guessed it – tax issues. As we pointed out in our post on Geithner’s confirmation hearing, the parade of tax problems is one of the best and most visible arguments for tax simplification that we’ve seen in years. We really don’t know who we’re addressing as "Stupid" in the title of this post. We’re just hoping it gets some attention. Somebody, please, jump on this issue! http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123367405418643627.html?mod=djemalertNEWS

Also on the tax issue, this post by Mike Cintolo at The Iconoclast Investor is quite good – he ruminates on some of the pssible unintended consequences of well intentioned income limits on tax credits: http://www.iconoclast-investor.com/