Primary Update: 2 Dems, 4 GOP?

On the GOP side, Mitt Romney won Nevada handily. Ron Paul was a "surprising but distant" (WSJ) second place. It’s not surprising to us that Ron Paul showed well in a state noted for its libertarian and pro-business leanings. But this victory is another positive for Romney’s campaign, coming on the heels of his Michigan win, and in McCain’s neighborhood. We have noted that Romney is emphasizing the need for a more competitive federal tax code in recent weeks, which could be playing well, especially in places like Nevada. In South Carolina, John McCain edged out Mike Huckabee in a contest notable for (a) civility between the two front runners, who could conceivably become a Pres-VP ticket, and (b) the apparent handwriting on the wall for former Senator Fred Thompson.

Similar signs came out of Nevada’s Democratic primary for another former Senator, John Edwards, as he barely registered there. Sen. Clinton won by a 5% margin over Sen. Obama, but Obama’s campaign is claiming an edge in total delegates, while anticipating victory in South Carolina. The Dem field has clearly been narrowed down to two, and we anticipate that the intensity and animosity will continue  to pick up between the two campaigns. There’s a risk for the Dems, given the far more open state of competition in the GOP at the moment, that their eventual nominee will come out of the primary campaign in pretty rough shape.